The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast the U.S. corn crop at 10.8 billion bushels, the lowest since 2006/2007 and a big jump down from the 12.9 billion bushel forecast just a month ago, in its first report based on actual field surveys.
The agency predicted record average farm corn prices in a range of $7.50 to $8.90 per bushel, up sharply from the $5.40 to $6.40 per bushel projected in July.
Corn ending stocks for the 2011/2012 marketing year ending in September are projected to be 118 million bushels higher at 1 billion bushels with lower expected exports, reduced corn use for ethanol, and a small increase in imports.
For 2012/2013, corn ending stock is expected to drop to just 650 million bushels, even as usage is expected to decline. That would be the lowest carryout since 1995/1996. Corn use for feed is expected to drop to 4 billion bushels from 4.8 billion predicted last month. The USDA dropped its forecast of corn use for ethanol by 400 million bushels to 4.5 billion bushels.
For 2012/2013, soybean production is projected at 2.7 billion bushels, down 358 million due to lower harvested area and yields; soybean supplies are projected 12-percent below last month to a nine-year low on lower production and reduced beginning stocks; and soybean ending stocks are projected at 115 million bushels, down 15 million.
Soybean and product prices for 2012/2013 are all raised to record levels this month, reflecting the impact of sharply reduced soybean and corn production.
The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected in a range of $15 to $17 per bushel, up $2 on both ends, and soybean meal prices are projected in a range of $460 to $490 per short ton compared with $365 to $395 last month.
Reprinted from meatingplace.com