June 29, 2007
June 29, 2007 - Australian wool production for the 2007-2008 season is forecast to fall by 4 percent, to 410 million kg. The latest estimate for shorn wool production for the 2006-2007 season is at 426 million kg. greasy.
The forecast, which points to an 11.6 percent decline over two years, was released this week by the Australian Wool Innovation (AWI) production forecasting committee. Buyers are keen to stress the estimate's significance, as additional volumes of held wool was released for the first sale of the 2007-2008 season on July 3-5.
The 2007-2008 production forecast for Australian wool is based on a 5 percent fall in the number of sheep shorn. The AWI production forecasting committee chairman, David James, Ph.D., said that fresh wool production and availability to the market will be low for the remainder of 2007 due to lower sheep numbers and lower fleece weights from the drought and the run-down in grower stocks.
"Improved seasonal conditions in parts of Australia will flow through to an improvement in wool production only in the second half of the 2007-2008 season, given that most of the wool shorn this spring has already been grown," he said.
James reiterated that the committee's focus is on forecasting fresh wool production and that production does not always equate to supply. This has particularly been the case in the 2006-2007 season, when the volume of wool tested by Australian Wool Testing Authority has not fallen to the same extent as the forecast decline in production in 2006-2007.
"This discrepancy reflects the release of on-farm stocks by growers from wool grown in previous years, which the committee estimates to have been around 15 million kg. greasy or 3.5 percent in 2006-2007," James said. Reprinted in part from The Wool Record Weeky