USDA Makes Long-Term Ag Projections
February 14, 2014
Despite lower prices for many agricultural products in the near future, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is projecting U.S. farm income to remain historically high through 2023. Analysis for the report was conducted prior to completion of the Agricultural Act of 2014, and was based on the assumption of continuation of policies in the 2008 Farm Bill. Projections range from long-term economic growth, global production and consumption trends, global trade trends, commodity prices, farm income and more.
USDA projects global economic growth to average 3.2 percent annually over the next decade, with stronger growth projected in developing countries, including China, India and countries in Africa and Latin America. The U.S. economic growth is projected to average 2.6 percent over the next decade.
"Steady global economic growth supports longer term gains in world food demand, global agricultural trade and U.S. agricultural exports," according to the report.
While prices for many of the major crops are projected to decline in the next few years, long-term growth in global demand, a low-valued U.S. dollar and demand for biofuel, will hold prices for corn, oilseeds and other major crops above pre-2007 levels, according to the report.
As a result of recovering from high feed prices in recent years and drought, USDA is projecting livestock production and per capital red meat consumption to increase through 2023.
The full report is available at www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/agricultural-baseline-projections.aspx#.Uv0t5T1dXZD.